A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
