Just 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager admonished him for not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a sign or the source of the team's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, though, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. When the in-form star curled home his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery discarded his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow only three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Challengers?
This is a rather hard query to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, while the victories have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa registered an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a team which has put together 10 in a row, the Villans look curiously susceptible – yet right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for Rogers to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and once more when facing United.
His opener originated from a superb shot, arced just inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United managed more efforts and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge they have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling the football into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path where, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still return to peak condition.
- The main striker might resume scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. When the hero positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
